Should Business Leaders Be Worried About the New Covid Strains?By preparing early, you will have a major competitive advantage.

Should leaders be worried about the implications for their business of thenewCovid strainsoriginating in the UK, South Africa andelsewhere(andrecently identifiedin the U.S.)? The media, experts and officials have focused on concerns about vaccine effectiveness. While somelegitimate concernsexist that our vaccines might be 10-20% less effective against the new strains, this small difference shouldn't make you too worried.

However, another aspect of these new strains should make you very worried indeed: They're much more infectious. Unfortunately, theimplicationsof their infectiousness has received little news coverage. In fact, officials claim there'sno cause for alarmabout the new strains. Such complacency reflects our sleepwalking in the pandemic's early stages, despiteclear and early warnings from myselfandotherrisk management experts, leading us to fail toplan and adapt successfully.

Are the New Strains Really More Infectious?

Researchers describe the UK strain as anywherefrom 56%-70% more infectious, and the South African straineven more infectious.The new UK variant quickly came to dominate the old strain of Covid in Southeast England, going from less than 1% of all tested samples at the start of November tomore than two-thirdsby mid-December.

To corroborate this research, we cancomparenew daily Covid cases per million people over the last several weeks in the UK, South Africa, US, Canada, Italy and France. Only the UK and South Africa have seen a major spike. The UK's numbers doubled over two weeks from 240 on December 10 to 506 on December 24; South Africa's case numbers similarly doubled in that period from 86 to 182. Given no policy changes or other viable explanations, the new Covid variants are almost certainly to blame.

Related:4 Steps For Improving Company Culture In 2021

Why We Ignore Slow-Moving Train Wrecks

Our minds aren't well adapted to processing the implications of these seemingly-abstract numbers. We fall into dangerous judgment errors that scholars in cognitive neuroscience, psychology and behavioral economics like myself callcognitive biases. They cause us to make all sorts of bad decisions in many life areas. We suffer from the tendency to focus on the short term and minimize the importance of longer-term outcomes. Known ashyperbolic discounting,这个认知偏见使我们低估了the eventual impacts of clear trends, such as a more infectious strain of Covid.

Thenormalcy biasresults in us feeling that things will generally keep going as they have been — normally. As a result, we underestimate drastically both the likelihood of a serious disruption occurring and the impact of one if it does occur, such as a novel variant.

When we develop plans, we feel that the future will follow our plan. That mental blindspot, theplanning fallacy, threatens our ability toprepare effectivelyfor andpivot quicklywhen facing risks and problems, such as the new strains. By realizing the danger of these mental blindspots, we canmanage our risks and decisions wisely. A case in point: When shopping, you can rely on a decision aid, likethis websitethat cuts down your choices to the best 10 ones available.

The Implications of Much Higher Infectiousness

The new strains likely arrived here by mid-November, withhundreds of probable casesby now. Based on the timeline in the UK and South Africa, the new variants willbecome predominanthere by March, and anew CDC studycame to the same conclusion.

The U.S.has maintaineda daily new case count of just over 200,000 from December 10-24. Imagine what happens when this starts shooting up rapidly as the new strains start to overtake the old strains, eventually doubling every two weeks when the new variants become predominant.

Hospital systems in California, Texas and other states are already overwhelmed. The terrible March outbreak in New York City will seem like a summer shower compared to the upcoming tsunami that will flood our medical systems. Moreover, the surge will undoubtedly cause major supply shortages and hammer industries such as travel and hospitality.

Might vaccines help? Not until the summer, due to thetiming of the rollout. What about government lockdowns? Not likely. The extreme politicization, widespread protests, and severe economic pain from lockdowns make politicians very reluctant to impose the kind of severe lockdown necessary to fight the new strains. Even if some do, mass public noncompliance will make lockdowns ineffective.

What Can You Do?

For yourself as a private citizen and your household, change your plans:

• Prepare for months of mass supply-chain disruptions by getting non-perishable supplies of consumables, using online sources that won't empty store shelves for others.
• Prepare for lack of access to emergency medical care by minimizing risky activities such as skiing or substantial household repairs.
• Take steps right now to get into strict pandemic lockdown for your household until you all get vaccines.
• To the extent possible, insist on working from home, or invest in a career transition to permit work from home.
• Communicate to your friends and family about the new strains and encourage them to take steps to protect themselves until they have vaccines.
• Protect themore vulnerable, such as by taking extra precautions around friends and family members over 60 or those with illnesses that make them more vulnerable to Covid, such as diabetes.
• Be ready to deal with other people making poor decisions, and take whatever steps you need to address such problems.
• Prepare psychologically for the tragedy of massive deaths as our hospitals get overwhelmed.

As a leader, prepare your team:

• Communicate to them about the new strains and encourage them to take the steps above to protect their households.
• Strongly encourage your employees to take advantage of any mental health resources you offer to prepare for the trauma of mass deaths.
• Coordinate with your HR on how to compensate for the much higher likely caseload of Covid in your team and burnout due to trauma caused by mass deaths and ensure cross-training for key positions.
• Transition now to your team working from home as much as possible.
• Revisit your business continuity plan to prepare for mass disruptions in the spring and summer.
• Prepare for major disruptions to your supply chains and service providers, as well as travel disruptions and event cancellations.
• 早期通过所有这些步骤,你将a major competitive advantage, so get ready to use the consequences of this competitive advantage to seize market share from your competitors who fail to prepare.

Related:Will Employers Require Covid-19 Vaccines? 5 Tips for Constructing Company-Wide Policies.

We're in for a world of pain this spring and early summer. It may feel unreal, but that's simply our cognitive biases telling us that, just like they did early in the pandemic. Don't be caught off guard, again, by ignoring this warning.